Kerr: What is Youngkin’s path to the presidency?

When pollsters and politicos rank the likely candidates for the GOP nomination for president, it’s a long list. They range from former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to former U.N. Secretary Nikki Haley.

Always tucked in there someplace, usually in the middle, is Virginia’s sitting governor, Glenn Youngkin.

It's difficult to tell how interested he is in running at this point. During the past two months, with the legislature in session, he stuck to state business. But, with the General Assembly now adjourned, he might get back in the game and see whether his prospects of a White House bid have any traction. How he does this will be interesting to watch.

Youngkin has stood out from the pack for several reasons. First, he is a Republican elected in a state that had been declared all but solid blue. Before Youngkin’s win in the gubernatorial race in 2021, Virginia had no statewide elected Republicans and the legislature was in Democratic hands, and, for many, that looked like the way things would be from now on.

Then, in walks Youngkin. After winning a confusing ranked voting contest to be nominated, he used scientific data analysis to focus on swing voters. The strategy was brilliant. He won big in red Virginia and shaved off enough independent support elsewhere in the state to win the election with ease. He showed that a Republican could win in a Democratic-leaning state.

That’s music to the ears of Republicans who worry that the current top-tier candidates in 2024 are too strident.

However, first things first. If Youngkin has any hope of succeeding in the presidential race, he first needs to appeal to his party’s base. He hasn’t demurred on this front. In terms of education, a hot-button topic, he has forbidden the teaching of critical race theory and prescribed “model policies” that children in public schools be addressed by the pronoun based on their biological gender. In other words, he is all for the parental rights movement.

That is resonating well with the GOP’s most ardent supporters. Youngkin also endorsed bills that would prohibit abortions after 15 weeks from the time of conception. This would be a dramatic change in abortion policy in Virginia, and if the legislature is more friendly after the 2023 election it could well happen. That would only help Youngkin’s presidential prospects.

Youngkin has also been successful at cutting taxes, a distinct appeal to the business-minded wing of the GOP. In 2022, he succeeded in reducing the sales tax on groceries and managed nearly $4 billion in cuts in personal and corporate taxes. That sort of thing sells well at the morning businessmen’s breakfasts in New Hampshire.

A lot has been made of Youngkin’s tour across the country to help 15 Republican candidates in the 2022 midterms. Alas, most of those lost. But most of that had to do with the poor quality of the candidates and not Youngkin. For a lot of Republicans, he is remembered for his efforts to “help the team” – and it has broadened the list of people outside Virginia who know who he is.

He’s also improved his position here in Virginia. The governor’s favorability rating has been on a steady uptick. A recent Roanoke College poll gave him a 57% approval rating, which is pretty good.

While not making much showing in presidential nomination polling, Youngkin is still being watched by the national press. That’s because he is a conservative who appeals to moderates and independents and has a successful track record in his state.

The thinking seems to be that should the current front-runners implode, which is a definite possibility, the search would be on for a candidate without a lot of negatives and an ability to appeal to a far broader swath of the electorate. That’s a role Youngkin could easily fill.

David Kerr is an adjunct professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and has worked on Capitol Hill and for various federal agencies for many years.